Alex Smart Alex Smart
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Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 22, 2020
Arkansas State vs Appalachian State
Appalachian State
-12½ -110 at William Hill
Play Type: Premium

Arkansas State has an explosive offense but the App State Mountaineers   defense is  showing themselves to be as tough as nails,  as is evident by holding their opposition  to 19.3 PPG  and in their only loss allowed  another top tier explosive offense to just 17 points on the road vs Marshall. Tonight I expect the Mountaineers D, to own the line of scrimmage vs the Wolves and for the Mounties offense to tee off on a Arkansas St D, that is allowing 39.8 ppg.

APPALACHIAN ST is 7-0 ATS /SU versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9  or more yards/play over the last 2 season with average margin of victory coming by an average of just under 22 ppg. 

Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (ARKANSAS ST) - with a poor first half defense - 16 or more points per game, after 2 straight games where 70 total points or more were scored 39-82 ATS L/28 years for a 68% go against conversion rate. 

Play on App State to cover 

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Oct 22, 2020
Giants vs Eagles
+4½ -109 at GTBets
Play Type: Premium

 The Giants are really hyped for this national TV game in a key divisional confrontation. If they win they will be 2nd in the division so their motivation factors are clear. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is over rated and their one win vs a banged up 49ers team was not as impressive as one might think or the media might have us believe as is evident by their favorite status in 3 games this season in which they did not win. 

The Giants are 19-0 ATS L/19 vs a divisional opponent that has at least one victory on the season and has forced fewer than 1.2 turnovers and has allowed 70-plus rushing yards per game season-to-date with no loss coming by more than 3 points.

NY GIANTS are 10-1 ATS  in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 3 seasons. NY GIANTS are 10-0 ATS  in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.  The Giants are 10-0 ATS as road dogs when coming off a division home victory. 

NFL  Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (PHILADELPHIA) - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 5-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against for a 83% conversion rate.  

Play on NY Giants to cover 



Experience & Awards

I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. 

My picks have been documented for 20 years.  I have earned numerous top 10 Basketball and Football finishes.  

My college football picks have profited in 16 of my last 18 seasons. In 2011 I went 68% for the year.

I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009  in a prestigious event.  I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006.  In 2014 I overcame a slow start to finish 59-32 65%!  

I have been an NBA World Champion with 7 winning seasons the last 8 years.  

I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. 

Handicapping Approach

I have a firm belief in my systems.  There is not a sport I feel I can not beat.  

My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned.  I have a large database of information and statistics.  I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form.  I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.

Sports Betting Is An Investment

Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance.  The same is true of financial analysts.  The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. 

Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage.  You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable.

I think sports betting is even better than the stock market.  The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched.

In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool.

I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor!

This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously!

Money Management

To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin.  You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll.

If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game.  No more than 3% on the best bets.

This might seem a little on the low side.  But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books.  You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality.

Here are some additional guidelines I recommend.

1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources.

2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea.

3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line.  It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture.

4. Buy off the hook on key numbers.

5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling.

6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base.

These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits.

I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.

*Almost all selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). Strong selections will see our single game wagers doubled.  These plays are rated as GENERALS CLUB selections.