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Alex Smart |
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| Alex Smart Sports- /NBA/MLB/NHL action now on board. Get the info the books do not want you to have. |
| YESTERDAY'S PLAYS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NHL | Jun 19, 2021 Lightning vs Islanders |
Islanders +115 at Draft Kings |
Won $115 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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The Isles were down in their first two series 2-1 and came back to win their series 4-2. In game 2 they lost 2-1 but outhsot and outplayed the Bolts in the final half of the game, and are more than capable of pulling off a win here at the Nassau Coliseum as dogs.Islanders are 6-2 in their last 8 games as a home underdog.Islanders are 5-2 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Islanders are 25-10 in their last 35 home games. Note:In three games in this series, New York has a 6.89-5.09 advantage in terms of expected goals. Play on the NY Islanders |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NBA | Jun 19, 2021 Bucks vs Nets |
Nets -1½ -108 at pinnacle |
Lost $108.0 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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Milwaukee has not played all that well on the road this season which is evident by their 16-25 ATS record as visitors, and are just 5-16 ATS in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons and 4-14 ATS in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Nash is 12-1 ATS in home games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots - 2nd half of the season as the coach of BROOKLYN. I know Kyrie Irving is not expected to play tonight for the Nets, but they are deep enough to adjust to that loss, and will be ready to compete tonight at home vs a Bucks franchise that is 0-7 in game 7s in their NBA lifetime. Note:HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Tied WWLLWL:Considering win order; ignoring site order: The team tied WWLLWL irrespective of site order (Brooklyn) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2021 and NBA Preliminary rounds: 22-6 SU Game 7 record. Play on Brooklyn to win |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | Jun 19, 2021 White Sox vs Astros |
OVER 7½ -109 |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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Astros hurler Valdez has been in top form of late, but the White Sox generally dominate southpaw pitchers as is evident by a 6.5 rpg offensive output . Meanwhile, Lance Lyn in his L/2 starts vs the Astros have seen the Pale Hose score 8 and 12 runs respectively . HOUSTON is 8-1 OVER vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better this season. HOUSTON is 24-9 OVER when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season. HOUSTON is 15-4 OVER after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. The White Sox are 11-0-1 OVER L/12 as a road dog after a game as a road favorite in which they had more strikeouts than hits.Over is 18-7-3 in White Sox last 28 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Play on the OVER |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | Jun 19, 2021 A's vs Yankees |
UNDER 9½ -113 |
Lost $113.0 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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As starter Chris Bassitt(RHP-7-2, 3.43 ERA, 91 SO) has allowed four runs or fewer in each of his past 25 starts over the past two years and Im betting on the run continuing today vs the Yankees. The Yankees are 0-7 UNDER L/7 when Domingo German starts in an afternoon game. NY YANKEES are 18-9 UNDER in day games this season with a combined average of 7.9 rpg scored. Under is 10-4-1 in Yankees last 15 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Under is 9-4 in Yankees last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Under is 11-5 in Yankees last 16 home games OAKLAND is 19-7 UNDER in road games vs. AL teams allowing 4.4 or less runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.Under is 18-7-3 in Athletics last 28 vs. American League East.Under is 4-1-1 in Athletics last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in New York.Under is 6-0-1 in the last 7 meetings. Play UNDER |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | Jun 19, 2021 Brewers vs Rockies |
Rockies -105 at BetCris |
Lost $105.0 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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Rockies starter Austin Gomber( LHP-6-5, 3.54 ERA, 75 SO)Remember when the going wisdom was curveballs were not good at Coors Field? Well, according to MLB Quality of Pitch, Gomber's knuckle curve ranks in the top four percent in MLB in overall quality.Colorados starter GOMBER is 8-1 against the money line as an opening line underdog of +100 to +150 in his career. The Rockies are 9-0 L/9 on the ML at home off a game as a dog in which they scored 6+ runs. COLORADO is 23-10 against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season. COLORADO is 15-6 against the money line in home games vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season. MILWAUKEE is 0-7 against the money line in road games vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season.MILWAUKEE is 9-15 against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season. The Rockies have won 5 straight and the Brewers have lost 5 straight. Both are currently headed in opposite directions. This is a momentum play. Take the Rockies to win |
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| PICKS IN PROGRESS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | Jun 20, 2021 Red Sox vs Royals |
Red Sox -116 at pinnacle |
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| Play Type: Premium | ||
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KCs starter MINOR is 0-6 against the money line in home games vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse this season. (Team's Record) MINOR is 4-11 against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) The Royals are 6-for-67 with runners in scoring position in their last eight games, and they've lost seven of them, including Saturday's 7-1 loss to the Boston Red Sox, in which the Royals were 0-for-11 with RISP. (Fade Material)
The Royals are 0-10 L/10 on the ML past the first game of a series after they scored in at most two separate innings last game. Play on Red Sox to win |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | Jun 20, 2021 Phillies vs Giants |
Giants -121 at linepros |
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| Play Type: Premium | ||
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Phillies starter Eflin has pitched fewer than six innings in two of his last three starts and in his current form a good hurler to fade. The Phillies won yesterday 13-6 but now a regression factor comes into play favoring the sf Giants. The Giants are 10-0 L/10 on the ML after they did not score after the third inning last game. PHILADELPHIA is 0-8 against the money line after scoring 12 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. PHILADELPHIA is 6-15 against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season. SAN FRANCISCO is 16-4 against the money line in home games revenging a loss vs opponent as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons. Play on Giants to win |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NBA | Jun 20, 2021 Clippers vs Suns |
UNDER 221½ -106 | |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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Clippers are off a exhausting 7 game series vs the Jazz last time out, and the Suns may be a little rusty after an extended lay off after disposing of the defending champion LA Lakers . Considering these parameters Im betting on a fairly grinding lack of flow from game 1 in afternoon action. Under is 8-2 in Suns last 10 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Under is 30-14 in Clippers last 44 games as a road underdog. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (PHOENIX) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 105-44 L/24 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (LA CLIPPERS/PHOENIX) - in a playoff game, in the 1rst game of a playoff series are 42-18 L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (PHOENIX) - off a road win, playing with 3 or more days rest are 26-8 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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SERVICE BIO |
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Experience & Awards I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. My picks have been documented for 20 years. I have earned numerous top 10 Basketball and Football finishes. My college football picks have profited in 16 of my last 18 seasons. In 2011 I went 68% for the year. I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009 in a prestigious event. I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006. In 2014 I overcame a slow start to finish 59-32 65%! I have been an NBA World Champion with 7 winning seasons the last 8 years. I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. Handicapping Approach I have a firm belief in my systems. There is not a sport I feel I can not beat. My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned. I have a large database of information and statistics. I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form. I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement. Sports Betting Is An Investment Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance. The same is true of financial analysts. The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage. You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable. I think sports betting is even better than the stock market. The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched. In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool. I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor! This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously! Money Management To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin. You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll. If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game. No more than 3% on the best bets. This might seem a little on the low side. But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books. You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality. Here are some additional guidelines I recommend. 1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources. 2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea. 3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line. It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture. 4. Buy off the hook on key numbers. 5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling. 6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base. These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits. I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself. *Almost all selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). Strong selections will see our single game wagers doubled. These plays are rated as GENERALS CLUB selections. |
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