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Freddy Wills’s Comments

Freddy Wills’s Pick
South Florida -3 3.3% play
Some misleading things going on here in my opinion. Let’s start with each teams last game. Memphis dominated SMU 51-7, less than 500 total yards, and benefited from a kick off return for a TD and +3 TO ratio. There were 4 fumbles in the game and Memphis recovered every single one including their own. SMU, 124th in the nation in special teams and now Memphis has to face a South Florida team coming into this game with revenge for their only home loss a season ago to Memphis 24-17. South Florida sports a top 25 special teams unit, and has just 1 turnover all season on the road. This is also the best offense that Memphis has faced, one could argue. South Florida is top 10 in yards per play. Memphis has faced 4 teams in the top 51 and have allowed an average 44 points per game in those contests on their way to a 1-3 record. I’m hiding the fact that South Florida comes into the game having faced 4 top 50 offenses too and allowed 40.75 ppg, but their non-conference schedule was much tougher, and the bye to rest up is certainly an advantage when you consider Memphis is playing in their 9th straight week.

South Florida also has a trio of runners in Flowers at QB, Marlon Mack and Dernest Johnson all capable of dominating this game. Flowers also very efficient through the air and is certainly a dual threat QB, something that Memphis has not faced this season. South Florida has lost two games and in those games they gave up 10 rushing TD’s and 6.99 yards per carry. I really don’t see that being a factor with a rested team. Memphis of course also more of a passing team as they rank 104th in adjusted run defense while South Florida struggles with the runt hey are better at defending the pass ranking 53rd in adjusted pass defense. I really like the match up when you consider Memphis ranks 96th vs. the run and South Florida is 7th running the ball. South Florida’s pass defense has been really good allowing just 10 TD’s on the year to 8 interceptions. Riley Ferguson has been very good, but he has turned the ball over at times. Memphis just 2-3 when they don’t win the TO margin battle and as I mentioned South Florida has 1 turnover on the road this year. The road team is 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings, Memphis is 9-23-1 ATS in their last 33 games after scoring 40+ in their previous game is getting too much credit here. I’ll take South Florida as the road favorite.

Statistics: Posted by Pick Bot – Sat Nov 12, 2016 8:03 pm – Replies 0 – Views 0

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The post Freddy Wills Released Picks • Saturday’s AAC Game of the Week – #Memphis vs. #South Florid appeared first on Sports Bet Capping – Where Records Don't Lie.

Freddy Wills Released Picks • Saturday’s AAC Game of the Week – #Memphis vs. #South Florid
Freddy Wills Released Picks • Saturday’s AAC Game of the Week – #Memphis vs. #South Florid

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