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Freddy Wills’s Comments

Freddy Wills’s Pick
Connecticut +7 2.2% play
East Carolina is not top 50 in any offensive or defensive category and they rank 126th in special teams S&P. This might be the worst defense Uconn has faced as Uconn has faced 4 teams in the top 50 in run defense. Their road games have been extremely challenging as well facing the 3 best out of the AAC in Navy, Houston, and South Florida all on the road. I think that prepares you for a game like this and I think Uconn can actually win this game outright. I have these two teams even at 28-28 and even if you are giving 3 points to East Carolina we are well within in the 7 points.

IT’s not every day that Uconn gets to face a team that cannot stop the run or the pass as East Carolina ranks #109 vs. the run and #101 vs. the pass. Uconn should be able to score points in this one and they should have a better time in the red zone considering they are a balanced offense and they have struggled, but against defenses that are either really good at stopping the run or the pass. Est Carolina has allowed 5 of their 6 opponents to rush for more yards per carry than their season average and in some cases much more. For instance they faced a #82 rushing attack and allowed +2.94 ypc than the opponent’s average. They faced #114, and allowed +1.38 ypc, and against a #99 allowed +1.04YPC. It’s a key stat because when Uconn can establish the run they should win and they have a capable QB unlike prior years in Bryant Shirreffs and receiver Noel Thomas to pick up yards.

On the flip side East Carolina will pass the ball a lot, but Uconn is at least good at slowing one part of their game plan down. Uconn has struggled vs. the pass at times, but they have also faced some pretty good passing teams and many of those on the road. East Carolina is not even in the top 50 in passing the ball and have had many turnovers as they are -12 on the season. Uconn can stop the run without stacking the box which will allow them to sit back and force Phillip Nelson into mistakes. East Carolina also just 41% TD rate in the red zone and Uconn plays the red zone really well allowing just 53%. Uconn has a lot of advantages in this game and I would not be surprised to see them pull the upset.

Statistics: Posted by Pick Bot – Sat Oct 29, 2016 12:03 pm – Replies 0 – Views 0

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Freddy Wills Released Picks • Early Bird Special – Guaranteed – 12-4 ATS Last 2 Weeks
Freddy Wills Released Picks • Early Bird Special – Guaranteed – 12-4 ATS Last 2 Weeks

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