The PAC 12 is full of variance these days.  It seems like on any given Saturday any team can pull the upset.  Although right now Washington seems to be the best team in the conference after a 30+ win form a College football against the spread perspective as they simply dominated Stanford from start to finish.  It was the most impressive win of the weekend and it was the only game on TV at the time on Friday night.  Bettors will definitely remember that moment.  I’m not sure how I feel about Washington at the moment, but let’s break down the following scenarios.

WINNING TEAM SCENARIOS:

Winning Teams following a win of 7+ ATS now at home

2015 – These teams went 10-12 ATS including 4-6 ATS following a 21+ win ATS.

2016 – This year it’s been a bit different as these teams are 5-1 ATS and 1-0 ATS following a 21+ win ATS.

Week #6 Action – USC won by 11 ATS now at home vs. Colorado as a 5 point favorite.

Winning teams following a win of 7+ ATS now on the road 

2015 – These teams went 6-7 ATS with a 1-0 record following a 21+ point ATS victory

2016 – These teams are 1-2 ATS with a 0-1 record following a 21+ point ATS victory

Week #6 Action  – Colorado the surprise of the PAC 12 is now in the winning team category.  They win 23.5 ATS now on the road as a 5 point road dog at USC.  Washington won by 34.5 ATS over Stanford and is a road favorite of 9 points this week.  Washington State won by 20.5 against the spread and is now on the road as a 7.5 point under dog against Stanford.  UCLA also off a win by 9.5 ATS now on the road as a 9.5 point favorite over Arizona State.  We will continue to track this situation in 2016, but it appears these teams may be a little over rated the following week.

Winning teams following a loss of 7+ ATS now at home

2015 – These teams went 6-2 ATS with a 1-0 ATS record following a 21+ point ATS loss

2016 – These teams went 2-2 ATS so far with a 1-1 ATS record following 21+

Week #6 Action – Looks like the teams you may want to back here are Oregon +9 against Washington, Stanford -7.5 vs. Washington State.

Winning teams following a loss of 7+ ATS now on the road

2015 – These teams went 11-6 ATS in 2015 including a 2-2 ATS record following a 21+ ATS loss

2016 – These teams have gone 2-2 so far with a 1-0 record following a 21+ ATS loss.

Neutral Sites:  Teams following a win 7+ at neutral sites are 2-1 ATS, and following a loss 7+ ATS are 1-3 ATS

LOSING TEAM SCENARIOS

AT this point in time Oregon State, Arizona and Arizona State are the losing teams in the conference

Losing teams following a win of 7+ ATS now at home

2015 – 3-2 ATS

2016 – n/a

Losing teams following a win 7+ ATS now on the road

2015 – 1-4 ATS and 0-1 off 21+ ATS win

2016 – 0-2 ATS

Losing teams following a loss 7+ ATS now at home

2015 – 6-3 ATS

2016 – 1-1 ATS

Two teams to look at here with Oregon State losing 23.5 ATS now at home vs. Cal as 12.5 point under dogs.  Arizona State lost at USC by 11 ATS now at home vs. UCLA +9.5.

Losing teams following a loss 7+ ATS now ON THE ROAD

2015 – 5-6 ATS – Includes 4-3 ATS record following a 21+ ATS loss

2016 – n/a

Week #6 Leans are – Arizona following a loss of 10.5 ATS over UCLA now on the road against UTAH as a 9.5 point dog.

Summary of Leans – Oregon +9, Stanford -7.5, USC -5, Oregon State +12.5, Arizona State +9.5

The post PAC 12 Betting Value & MOV Against The Spread Analysis appeared first on Sports Bet Capping – Where Records Don't Lie.

PAC 12 Betting Value & MOV Against The Spread Analysis
PAC 12 Betting Value & MOV Against The Spread Analysis

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